Episode 42 | May 30, 2022

Survival metrics for smarter product decisions

Discover how survival metrics help product teams make smarter decisions, avoid sunk cost bias, and align around strategy with Adam Thomas.

How survival metrics can help product teams build smarter, faster, and more aligned decisions

Imagine a product development process without endless debates, stalled initiatives, or vague goals. Instead, picture a team confidently making decisions, knowing when to stop, pivot, or double down. That’s exactly the vision Adam Thomas, lead product manager at SmartRecruiters, outlines in Episode 42 of Insights Unlocked, where he shares a transformative framework for product decision-making: Survival Metrics.

In today’s high-speed, data-rich product environment, decision paralysis can be just as dangerous as a bad idea. Adam offers a compass for navigating ambiguity and turning insight into action—without falling into the traps of sunk cost bias or organizational noise.

Redefining the product manager’s role

Before diving into the survival metrics framework, Adam grounds listeners in what he believes is the true role of a product manager: not to create outputs, but to empower better decisions.

“The role of a product manager inside of a company is one thing and one thing only: how do you help the team, organization, and company around you make better decisions consistently,” he said.

He challenges outdated assumptions that PMs should be delivering slides or coding features. Instead, the job is fundamentally about decision science—curating insights, facilitating alignment, and guiding strategy through ambiguity.

This redefinition aligns with modern thinking around outcome-driven development, where success is measured by impact, not deliverables.

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Why decision-making needs structure

Adam acknowledges that effective product decision-making requires a degree of comfort with ambiguity. Yet, that ambiguity shouldn’t lead to chaos or inconsistency.

“You’re never going to be 100% sure… You have to be confident in this ambiguity and then go without ego to talk to as many sources as possible to try to create a cohesive picture.”

This is where survival metrics come into play—a structured way to interpret signals and make high-stakes choices without succumbing to sunk costs or emotional attachment.

He proposes that, without a shared understanding of priorities and alignment around the ideal customer profile (ICP), teams fragment. Sales, marketing, and engineering pull in different directions, and strategy becomes diluted.

Introducing the survival metrics framework

At its core, the Survival Metrics framework is about clarity. It divides product decisions into three action-oriented categories:

  • Stop: Signals that indicate immediate termination is necessary
  • Pivot: Signs that warrant re-evaluation or course correction
  • Invest: Evidence that justifies deeper resource commitment

It’s a decision-making playbook that anticipates challenges and aligns stakeholders before a crisis occurs.

“Survival metrics is a tool to help us get away from sunk cost bias,” Adam said. “From there, you’re able to avoid a lot of the bickering and back and forth.”

Think of it as the brakes, the steering wheel, and the gas pedal of a product roadmap. Teams need all three to navigate effectively.

Building metrics on a strong foundation

Adam grounds his framework in two powerful truths:

  1. The Agile Manifesto, particularly the tenet “responding to change over following a plan.”
  2. Statistical reality, citing research that shows 60–90% of product ideas fail to improve key metrics.

“Even if you don’t believe those numbers, there should be a regular process in which you’re stopping things, revisiting assumptions, and pivoting,” he said. 

In this way, survival metrics don’t just help build better products—they help build a culture that’s more data-informed, more collaborative, and more resilient.

Creating alignment through storytelling

Effective decision-making isn’t just about metrics—it’s also about storytelling. Adam emphasizes that human beings interpret information best through narrative.

“You take these inputs from people that have stakes in your decisions, and you start to craft what the story is,” he said. “If it starts to resonate with people, and people repeat things back to you over and over, you're starting to get real alignment.”

To test this alignment, he offers a simple but powerful technique: ask three stakeholders what your team’s top priorities are. If their answers diverge, it’s time to recalibrate the story.

The difference between survival and success metrics

Adam makes a clear distinction between survival metrics and success metrics:

  • Survival metrics evaluate if a product idea should continue through the build process. They assess internal dynamics, feasibility, and context.
  • Success metrics measure external impact post-launch—how well a product is performing in the market.

Both are essential, but they serve different purposes in the product lifecycle.

“Survival metrics are focusing on the product as it's being built,” Adam said. “Success metrics are all about: how do we know this is a successful project?”

Combining both types leads to a more judicious, thoughtful, and customer-centric approach to product development.

A cautionary tale: the cost of ignoring survival signals

To illustrate the framework’s impact, Adam recounts a case study—he calls it "Bob Co"—of a company that expanded too quickly and paid the price. After falling into a spree of unvetted feature releases, the company shifted from profitability to layoffs.

By implementing the survival metrics framework, Bob Co:

  • Killed more unproductive features in six months than in any prior period
  • Increased cross-functional collaboration (e.g., support staff talking with designers)
  • Gained alignment between leadership and frontline teams
  • Became a data-informed culture focused on insight and outcomes

This transformation wasn’t just operational—it was cultural.

“One day I walked in and I saw a designer talking to a support person… a marketer talking to an engineer… they’re playing the same game,” he said. 

Keeping metrics relevant

A good framework evolves with its environment. Adam stresses the importance of revisiting metrics regularly—especially survival metrics, which are more sensitive to organizational change.

He recommends teams integrate check-ins during sprint planning:

  • Are survival metrics still valid?
  • Has a pivot condition now become a stop condition?
  • Are there new environmental factors—like funding or leadership shifts—that change the equation?

“Organizations are complex systems,” Adam said. “Things change. New executives come in. New regulations start to happen.”

Survival metrics help teams course-correct early—before misalignment turns into technical debt or cultural drift.

Getting buy-in on customer feedback

When asked how to persuade stakeholders to embrace customer feedback, Adam offers a practical hack:

“Go do it yourself,” he said. “Come back with some really cool insights. Make a nice little video presentation and show somebody over 10 minutes what you found.”

Instead of asking for permission or budget, show—not tell—the power of customer insight. Then, gradually invite others into the process.

This bottom-up approach aligns perfectly with the theme of the episode: make smarter decisions by sharing real, tangible insights early and often.

The future of product is inclusive and eclectic

Looking ahead, Adam is most excited about a future of product management that values non-traditional backgrounds.

“This was a discipline built on apprenticeship… Let’s go hire some of the oddballs.”

He calls for a move away from “heuristic bingo”—defaulting to Ivy League resumes—and toward cultivating people with curiosity, empathy, and adaptability.

Whether it’s a customer support rep turned PM or a designer turned strategist, the product world thrives when it embraces a diversity of perspectives.

Final thought: a product manager’s north star

As teams race to ship and scale, frameworks like survival metrics offer more than operational efficiency—they offer clarity, confidence, and cohesion.

In a world where ambiguity is the norm, survival metrics help product teams ask better questions, make sharper choices, and build things people actually love.

“It’s understanding we’re not clairvoyant,” Adam said. “We need some sort of way, because of human bias, to take a look at what we’re making and create these stops—these governors—for ourself and our teams.”

Episode links: 

  • Making the case for content testing in your organization: This webinar explores strategies for advocating content testing within teams, emphasizing the importance of evaluating real content to enhance user experiences.
  • The complete guide to user interviews: This comprehensive guide explores how user interviews can improve the product development lifecycle. It covers different types of user interviews, when to conduct them, and how to run successful sessions. The guide also discusses how UserTesting’s Live Conversation can make user interviews easier.
  • How smart content drives better customer experiences: This episode discusses how smart content improves customer experiences, offering UX writing best practices, content testing tips, and insights into AI's role in customer experience.
  • A product manager’s guide to making design decisions: This blog post provides insights into how product managers can make critical design decisions swiftly, emphasizing the importance of user feedback and iterative testing.